Event Risk Defines the Open

Today’s session is defined by a dense macro calendar. The market has to process U.S. GDP, PCE inflation data, jobless claims, and employment-cost information in the same pre-market window, creating a high-information, high-reaction setup before the cash session even begins. This is not a day where the first reaction should be trusted blindly. When several macro releases hit together, the…

first move can reflect positioning, liquidity, and headline interpretation rather than a complete read of the data. The Federal Reserve has just held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while also keeping a data-dependent approach toward future adjustments. The vote was divided: one official preferred a 25 bps cut, while three others supported holding rates but objected to keeping