Calm Returns, But the Risk Map Is Not Clean
Today’s Thesis The market enters today with a constructive tone, but the setup is still conditional. U.S. futures are pointing higher, oil has pulled back from the most stressful levels, and volatility has eased back below the danger zone, but the broader risk map remains shaped by inflation sensitivity, Middle East headlines, Treasury yields, and earnings reactions. S&P 500 futures…
were modestly higher in the pre-market, while the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.44% and Brent crude was easing after recent geopolitical-driven pressure. The key message for today is simple: the market is trying to recover from event stress, but the recovery still needs confirmation. If VIX stays contained and macro data is absorbed well, risk appetite can remain supported.
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